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2026 Farrer by-election

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2026 Farrer by-election
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9 May 2026
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Division of Farrer (NSW) in the House of Representatives
Votes counted
84.9%
as of 10 May 2026, 16:39 AEST
  First party Second party
 
Candidate David Farley Michelle Milthorpe
Party One Nation Independent
Primary vote 38,939 28,030
Percentage 39.4% 28.4%
Swing Increase 32.8 pp Increase 8.5 pp
TCP 56,641 42,090
TCP % 57.4% 42.6%
TCP swing Increase 57.4 pp Decrease 1.2 pp
  Third party Fourth party
 
Candidate Raissa Butkowski Brad Robertson
Party Liberal National
Primary vote 12,228 9,608
Percentage 12.4% 9.7%
Swing Decrease 31.1 pp Increase 9.7 pp
MP before election

Sussan Ley
Liberal

Elected MP

David Farley
One Nation

A by-election was held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. One Nation candidate David Farley was elected, defeating independent Michelle Milthorpe. The election followed the resignation of former opposition leader and Liberal leader Sussan Ley.[1][2]

It was the first by-election since the 2025 federal election, the first during Angus Taylor's leadership of the Liberals, the first during Matt Canavan's leadership of the Nationals, and the fifth during Anthony Albanese's tenure as prime minister. It was also the first time a One Nation candidate was elected to the House of Representatives, with previous MPs having defected to the party whilst sitting in Parliament.[3]

Key dates

[edit]
  • By-election announced — 5 March 2026
  • Postal vote applications open — 5 March 2026
  • Issue of writ — 1 April 2026
  • Close of roll — 8 April 2026
  • Close of nominations — 13 April 2026
  • Declaration of nominations — 14 April 2026
  • Early voting begins — 28 April 2026
  • Postal vote applications close — 6 May 2026
  • Polling day — 9 May 2026
  • Return of writ — on or before 10 July 2026[4]

Background

[edit]

Resignation

[edit]

A leadership spill of the Liberal party room was held on 13 February 2026, where Sussan Ley was defeated by Angus Taylor 34 votes to 17 for the leadership of the party.[5] Following the defeat, Ley fronted a press conference where she announced that she would resign from parliament "in the next couple of weeks".[6]

On 27 February 2026, Ley officially submitted her resignation.[7] On 5 March 2026, the Speaker of the House, Milton Dick, announced the by-election would be held on 9 May 2026.[8]

Seat details

[edit]

Farrer is a rural electorate located in the far southwestern area of New South Wales and includes the towns of Albury, Corowa, Narrandera, Leeton, Griffith, Deniliquin, Hay, Balranald and Wentworth. A traditionally conservative seat, the seat has historically been a safe Liberal seat since Ley first won it in 2001, though the Liberal Party suffered a 10% swing against it on the two-candidate preferred vote against an independent candidate in 2025, and won the seat on a reduced margin of 56.19% to 43.81%.[9]

Two-party-preferred vote in Farrer, 1990–2025
Election 1990 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025
  Labor 32.21% 32.57% 28.77% 35.38% N/a 30.18% 38.83% 35.49% 32.57% 29.47% 30.17% 33.65% 37.11%
  Liberal N/a N/a N/a N/a 50.14% 69.82% 61.17% 64.51% 67.43% 70.53% 69.83% 66.35% 62.89%
  National 67.79% 67.43% 71.23% 64.62% 49.86% N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a
Government ALP ALP L/NP L/NP L/NP L/NP ALP ALP L/NP L/NP L/NP ALP ALP

2025 election results

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2025 Australian federal election in New South Wales § Farrer.[edit]
2025 Australian federal election: Farrer[10]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Sussan Ley 44,743 43.41 −8.85
Independent Michelle Milthorpe 20,567 19.96 +19.96
Labor Glen Hyde 15,551 15.09 −3.90
One Nation Emma Hicks 6,803 6.60 +0.27
Greens Richard Hendrie 5,085 4.93 −4.18
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Peter Sinclair 3,577 3.47 −1.84
Trumpet of Patriots Tanya Hargraves 2,441 2.37 +2.37
Family First Rebecca Scriven 2,218 2.15 +2.15
People First David O'Reilly 2,078 2.02 +2.02
Total formal votes 103,063 90.97 −1.44
Informal votes 10,234 9.03 +1.44
Turnout 113,297 91.55 +2.11
Notional two-party-preferred count
Liberal Sussan Ley 64,812 62.89 −3.46
Labor Glen Hyde 38,251 37.11 +3.46
Two-candidate-preferred result
Liberal Sussan Ley 57,916 56.19 −10.16
Independent Michelle Milthorpe 45,147 43.81 +43.81
Liberal hold  

Candidates

[edit]

Media characterised the by-election as a four-way race between the Liberals, Nationals, One Nation and independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe.[11][12][13] Candidates are listed in ballot order.

Party Candidate Background
  Liberal Raissa Butkowski Lawyer and City of Albury councillor[14]
  Independent Michelle Milthorpe Teacher, business owner and second-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025[15][16]
  People First Jamie Bonnefin Architect and small business owner[17]
  National Brad Robertson Australian Army veteran and former commander, Albury branch chair[18][19]
  Legalise Cannabis Aimee Lee Pearson Albury-based pharmacist[20]
  Greens Richard August Hendrie Mental health worker and fifth-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025[21]
  Independent Roger Woodward Seventh-placing candidate for Berowra in 2025[22]
  One Nation David Farley Former CEO of AACo and irrigation specialist[23]
  Family First Rebecca Scriven Works at a Christian school and eighth-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025[24]
  Sustainable Australia Lucas James Ellis Works in the planning sector[25]
  Independent Gary Jean Pappin Murray River councillor and retired farmer[26]
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Peter Sinclair Egg packer and sixth-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025[27]

Liberal

[edit]

On 23 February, The Australian reported that "the right faction of the Liberal Party has gained control of candidate preselection in a bid to stem the leakage of votes to One Nation". State Liberal MP Justin Clancy publicly expressed interest in running as the Liberal candidate; shortly after taking office as leader of the Liberal Party Angus Taylor called Clancy to discuss the by-election.[28] On 27 February, Justin Clancy ruled out contesting Farrer. Nominations for Liberal preselection in Farrer closed on 2 March.[29] Media reported former Sussan Ley staffer Lachlan McIntyre, and Albury councillor and lawyer Raissa Butkowski as candidates.[30] The Liberal Party held their preselection vote on 15 March.[31]

On 15 March, the Liberal Party preselected lawyer for the Hume Riverina Community Legal Service and City of Albury councillor Raissa Butkowski to contest the by-election. Butkowski is also a member of the Murray-Darling Association, an organisation that advocates for local government and water issues.[32]

National

[edit]

The National Party will contest Farrer for the first time since losing the seat in 2001, since Coalition rules in New South Wales forbid parties from running a candidate in a sitting Coalition MP's seat.[33] Media reported former Nationals senator Perin Davey, Albury mayor Kevin Mack, the party's branch chairman Brad Robertson and Murray Irrigation Ltd director Gabrielle Coupland as potential candidates.[28][19] Marty Corboy, the Nationals candidate for neighbouring Indi in 2016, endorsed Perin Davey.[34] The Nationals selected Robertson as their candidate on 8 March.[18] Robertson is an Australian Army veteran and former commander.[18]

One Nation

[edit]

On 13 February, party leader Pauline Hanson announced that One Nation will contest the by-election.[35] On 27 February, One Nation announced that David Farley, Leigh Wolki and Guy Cooper were the three candidates seeking pre-selection, following a process that assessed 80 candidates.[36] On 7 March, David Farley won preselection as the One Nation candidate.[23] Hanson said it was the first time a branch had selected its own candidate.[37]

Farley is a Narrandera-based agricultural businessman. He was formerly the CEO of Australian Agricultural Company.[37] He was recently elected chair of the lobby group Speak Up 4 Water. He became a member of One Nation before Sussan Ley resigned.[19]

Independent (Milthorpe)

[edit]

Michelle Milthorpe was an independent candidate in the 2025 election and was supported by the community group Voices of Farrer and the Climate 200 fundraising organisation.[38] On 13 February, she announced her intention to contest the by-election.[15] She is also supported by Alasdair Macleod, who is married to Rupert Murdoch's daughter Prudence. His agribusiness Macdoch invests in regenerative agriculture and other methods which mitigate the effects of climate change.[39] Milthorpe is a teacher from Jindera and an advocate for child abuse victims.[16]

Other candidates

[edit]

Family First ran Rebecca Scriven, an independent Christian school worker who ran for the party in 2025.[24]

The Greens contested the by-election.[40] They ran Richard Hendrie, a mental health worker who ran for the party in 2025.[21]

On 14 February, Gerard Rennick announced that People First would contest the by-election.[41] The party endorsed Jamie Bonnefin, an architect and the president of its NSW division.[42]

The Sustainable Australia Party contested Farrer for the first time since 2019.[25]

Gary Pappin ran as an independent.[26]

Legalise Cannabis candidate Aimee Pearson, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Peter Sinclair and independent Roger Woodward were announced as candidates at the declaration of nominations.[43]

Not contesting

[edit]

The governing Australian Labor Party opted not to field a candidate in the by-election. Initially, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the party would decide whether to contest the by-election "once Sussan Ley actually resigns,"[44] however on 13 March 2026 the party's national executive met and decided against running a candidate. Speaking on condition of anonymity, a member of the executive reportedly said "we don’t want to create a disturbance or dilute the Coalition’s anti-One Nation vote."[45]

Helen Dalton, independent state MP for the electoral district of Murray, was viewed as a potential challenger for the seat, with Dalton claiming that her mobile phone had "been burning up" since Ley's resignation.[46] Dalton was also approached to run for the seat as a One Nation candidate.[47] On 5 March, Dalton confirmed that she would not be a candidate.[48]

Darren De Bortoli, the managing director of De Bortoli Wines, said he was approached to run by multiple parties but declined all offers.[49]

Jordi Queiruga planned to run as an independent, but did not contest the seat.[50]

Campaign

[edit]
Lake Hume, a component of the Murray-Darling basin in Albury-Wodonga

The campaign primarily focused on local issues specific to the Farrer region, especially water management in the Murray-Darling basin, regional healthcare and cost of living.[51][52][53]

The media resurfaced comments made by One Nation candidate David Farley in 2012 where he likened then–Prime Minister Julia Gillard to a "non-productive old cow". Farley and Pauline Hanson described the comments as tongue-in-cheek.[54] Farley also provoked controversy and criticism for describing the crime in Griffith, a city in Farrer, as "hectic"[55] and for sharing suggestive content on social media from OnlyFans creators, which he defended as accidental.[56]

The Coalition launched attack advertisements against opponents David Farley and Michelle Milthorpe. They criticised One Nation for having "no solutions",[57] and further criticised Farley for running for preselection to be a Labor candidate in 2022 and for having donated to them.[58] They also released advertisements dubbing Milthorpe a "teal".[59]

Progressive lobby group GetUp! had raised $400,000 for its anti–One Nation campaign by 22 April, and intended to spend at least $600,000 attacking the party by the close of polling.[60]

Debates and forums

[edit]

A debate was organised by the New South Wales Farmers' Federation and held at the Deniliquin RSL club on 21 April. It was attended by seven of the twelve candidates and moderated by Harold Clapham.[61]

An anti-abortion forum organised by Dr Joanna Howe was held in Albury on 24 April. It was attended by the One Nation, Family First, and Nationals candidates as well as Senator Matt Canavan, though all candidates were reportedly invited. The event was criticised by state MLC Amanda Cohn, and the three candidates who attended were all endorsed by Howe.[62]

Charles Sturt University organised a debate for 30 April, moderated by political journalist Barrie Cassidy. Nine of the 12 candidates were in attendance.[63]

Election day

[edit]
Polling place at Albury on election day

A sign bearing the Australian Electoral Commission's logo without authorisation was displayed at the Orana Community Centre polling place in Springdale Heights, containing information about political donations to Michelle Millthorpe.[64][65] The sign was subsequently removed by the Commission following an injunction by the Federal Court of Australia.[66]

Opinion polling

[edit]
For results of opinion polls not specific to the by-election, see Electorate opinion polling and projections for the next Australian federal election § Farrer.
Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB NAT Milthorpe
(IND) 		ALP ONP GRN OTH UND LIB Milthorpe
(IND) 		ONP
9–10 Apr 2026 uComms[67][a] 1,116 ≈±3% 16.1% 7.1% 30.0% N/a 30.9% 3.8% 4.2% 7.9% N/a 47.3% 52.7%
11 Mar 2026 Matt Canavan becomes Nationals leader
5–6 Mar 2026 uComms[68][b] 1,281 ±2.73% 19.1% 5.2% 23.3% 9.0% 28.7% 3.9% 2.2% 8.6% N/a N/a N/a
27 Feb 2026 Sussan Ley resigns as an MP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 43.4% — 20.0% 15.1% 6.6% 4.9% 10.0% — 56.2% 43.8% —

Endorsements

[edit]

Michelle Milthorpe

[edit]

Michelle Milthorpe was endorsed by David Pocock, independent senator for the Australian Capital Territory, and Helen Haines, independent MP for the neighbouring electorate of Indi, at a campaign event in Albury on 6 March.[69]

Katter's Australian MP Bob Katter also endorsed Milthorpe at the Albury Gold Cup, emphasising the importance of an independent crossbench holding the balance of power. He recognised "soft" support for One Nation, attributing it to a protest vote against the major parties, though also acknowledged Pauline Hanson's "excellent work in opposing migration".[70]

Cathy McGowan, who was an independent MP representing Indi from 2013 until her retirement in 2019, endorsed Milthorpe at a launch party.[71]

Other endorsements

[edit]

Anti-abortion activist Joanna Howe endorsed Family First, One Nation, and the Nationals as first, second, and third preferences respectively after the three candidates attended a forum she organised.[62]

How-to-vote cards

[edit]

Political parties recommend to voters how they should preference candidates through "how-to-vote cards" distributed by campaign volunteers near polling places. Parties often make agreements between themselves about these recommendations. Preferences are expected to play a key role in the by-election.[72]

The Liberals recommended preferences be directed to the Nationals second, and the Nationals recommended preferences be directed to the Liberals second. On 5 March, Liberal frontbencher Andrew Bragg publicly urged his party to preference One Nation last,[73] however the Liberals ultimately preferenced One Nation fourth.[74]

Michelle Milthorpe did not ask voters to direct preferences, just as she did not at the previous election.[28]

Family First said it would not give its second preferences to One Nation because of Farley's view of women.[75]

Legalise Cannabis ran an open ticket, with no directions for further preferences beyond a number "1" for their candidate.[76]

Candidate How-to-vote card (read column top down)
LIB Mil. PFP NAT LCA GRN Woo. ONP FFP SAP Pap. SFF
  Raissa Butkowski (LIB)[74] 1 N/a 7 2 N/a 7 N/a 3 3 N/a 7 10
  Michelle Milthorpe (IND)[28] 9 1 11 8 N/a 3 N/a 11 11 N/a 5 11
  Jamie Bonnefin (PFP)[77] 10 N/a 1 4 N/a 11 N/a 5 5 N/a 9 6
  Brad Robertson (NAT)[78] 2 N/a 4 1 N/a 6 N/a 2 2 N/a 6 3
  Aimee Lee Pearson (LCA)[76] 11 N/a 10 9 1 4 N/a 8 10 N/a 4 4
  Richard August Hendrie (GRN)[79] 12 N/a 12 12 N/a 1 N/a 12 12 N/a 2 12
  Roger Woodward (IND)[80] 3 N/a 8 10 N/a 9 1 9 7 N/a 12 9
  David Farley (ONP)[81] 4 N/a 4 5 N/a 12 N/a 1 4 N/a 10 2
  Rebecca Scriven (FFP)[82] 5 N/a 3 3 N/a 10 N/a 6 1 N/a 8 5
  Lucas James Ellis (SAP)[83] 6 N/a 5 11 N/a 5 N/a 7 9 1 3 7
  Gary Jean Pappin (IND)[84] 7 N/a 9 7 N/a 2 N/a 10 8 N/a 1 8
  Peter Sinclair (SFF)[85] 8 N/a 2 6 N/a 8 N/a 4 5 N/a 11 1

Results

[edit]
2026 Farrer by-election[86]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
One Nation David Farley 38,939 39.44 +32.84
Independent Michelle Milthorpe 28,030 28.39 +8.43
Liberal Raissa Butkowski 12,228 12.39 −31.02
National Brad Robertson 9,608 9.73 +9.73
Legalise Cannabis Aimee Lee Pearson 2,288 2.32 +2.32
Greens Richard August Hendrie 2,221 2.25 −2.68
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Peter Sinclair 1,896 1.92 −1.55
Family First Rebecca Scriven 1,176 1.19 −0.96
Independent Gary Jean Pappin 761 0.77 +0.77
People First Jamie Bonnefin 704 0.71 −1.31
Sustainable Australia Lucas James Ellis 569 0.58 +0.58
Independent Roger Woodward 311 0.31 +0.31
Total formal votes 98,731 93.48 +2.51
Informal votes 6,885 6.52 −2.51
Turnout 105,616 84.87 −6.68
Registered electors 124,447
Two-candidate-preferred result
One Nation David Farley 56,641 57.37 +57.37[c]
Independent Michelle Milthorpe 42,090 42.63 −1.2[d]
One Nation gain from Liberal  

Results are not final. Last updated on 10 May 2026 at 16:39 AEST.

Reactions

[edit]

Media outlets and commentators began to call the election for One Nation shortly after polls closed: Sky News at 19:45,[87] psephologist Antony Green at 19:50,[88] The Sydney Morning Herald at 20:01,[89] and the Australian Broadcasting Corporation at 20:03.[90]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Commissioned by Michelle Milthorpe.
  2. ^ Commissioned by The Australia Institute.
  3. ^ In the 2025 Australian federal election, One Nation did not reach the two‑candidate‑preferred (2CP) count. This number reflects a shift from their 2025 2CP result of 0% to their result at this election.
  4. ^ Michelle Milthorpe finished second in the 2025 Australian federal election to the Liberal candidate. This figure reflects the change in her two‑candidate‑preferred vote, which on this occasion was calculated against One Nation instead.

References

[edit]
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  12. ^ de Silva, Zac; Brown, Andrew (5 March 2026). "Date locked in for Liberals' crucial by-election test". Australian Associated Press. Retrieved 19 April 2026. A four-way race is expected to choose Ms Ley's replacement, with the Liberals, Nationals, One Nation and Climate 200-backed independent Michelle Milthorpe planning to run.
  13. ^ "Four-way battle begins for Farrer by-election". Seven News. The race will pit One Nation against the Liberals, Nationals and a Climate 200 independent, with Labor not fielding a candidate.
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  35. ^ Hanson, Pauline [@PaulineHansonOz] (13 February 2026). "I want to wish Sussan Ley all the best in her future outside of politics" (Tweet). Retrieved 13 February 2026 – via X (formerly Twitter).
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  40. ^ Cohn, Amanda [@DrAmandaCohn] (13 February 2026). "Albury-Wodonga desperately needs a new hospital on a new site. A by-election in Farrer will shine the national spotlight on our region. This is a huge opportunity, and the Greens are ready" (Tweet). Retrieved 13 February 2026 – via X (formerly Twitter).
  41. ^ Rennick, Gerard [@RennickGBR] (14 February 2026). "People First is still here and we are pleased to announce we are running a candidate in the seat of Farrer. Nominations are now open" (Tweet). Retrieved 16 February 2026 – via X (formerly Twitter).
  42. ^ Bunn, Anthony (9 April 2026). "Outsider architect has designs on making a mark in Farrer byelection race". The Border Mail. Wodonga: Australian Community Media. Retrieved 12 April 2026.
  43. ^ Wilson, Chelsea (16 April 2026) [15 April 2026]. "Three new candidates revealed for lengthy Farrer byelection ballot". The Border Mail. Retrieved 19 April 2026.
  44. ^ Coorey, Phillip (23 February 2026). "PM taunts Coalition as Labor flirts with running in Farrer byelection". The Australian Financial Review. Archived from the original on 23 February 2026. Retrieved 23 February 2026.
  45. ^ Coorey, Phillip (16 March 2026). "Labor gives Farrer byelection a miss; Littleproud demoted". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 19 April 2026.
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  48. ^ "Why MP won't run for Ley's old seat after talks with One Nation". Herald Sun. 5 March 2026. Retrieved 5 March 2026.
  49. ^ Jacques, Oliver (28 February 2026). "Independent favoured to win Farrer by-election by bookies as Liberal MP confirms he won't run". Region Riverina. Retrieved 19 April 2026.
  50. ^ McMaugh, Zoe (30 March 2026). "Quiz the candidates". Southern Riverina News. Retrieved 19 April 2026.
  51. ^ Massola, James (24 April 2026). "This crucial byelection looks nothing like the battle in Canberra. That's a good thing". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 3 May 2026.
  52. ^ Canales, Sarah Basford (25 April 2026). "Something has changed in Australia. The voters of Farrer may tell us what, and how much". Guardian Australia. Retrieved 3 May 2026.
  53. ^ "All eyes on Farrer by-election as One Nation looking to make history" (video). News.com.au. 1 May 2026. Retrieved 3 May 2026 – via Sky News Australia.
  54. ^ McIlroy, Tom; Dhanji, Krishani (8 March 2026). "One Nation candidate contesting Sussan Ley's seat likened Julia Gillard to 'non-productive old cow'". The Guardian. Retrieved 19 April 2026.
  55. ^ Olbrycht-Palmer, Joseph; Schmidt, Nathan (1 April 2026). "One Nation's Farrer candidate 'smeared' electorate's city". News.com.au. Retrieved 3 May 2026.
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  57. ^ Butler, Josh (22 April 2026). "Coalition launches One Nation attack ads via obscure Facebook accounts ahead of Farrer byelection". Guardian Australia. Retrieved 3 May 2026.
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